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What (who) is fencepost errors - definition

DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ACTUAL OR REAL AND THE PREDICTED OR FORECAST VALUE OF A TIME SERIES OR ANY OTHER PHENOMENON OF INTEREST

Forecast errors

fencepost error

TYPE OF NUMERICAL OR COUNTING ERROR

Fencepost error; Obi-wan error; Obi-Wan error; Off by one errors; Off by one error; Off-by-one-error; Off by one (bug); Buffer fence post error; OB1; Fencepost problem; Fence post error; Off-by-one; Off by one; Off by 1; Off-by-one errors; Banana error; Fence-post error; OBOB; Picket-fence problem

1. (Rarely "lamp-post error") A problem with the discrete equivalent of a boundary condition, often exhibited in programs by iterative loops. From the following problem: "If you build a fence 100 feet long with posts 10 feet apart, how many posts do you need?" (Either 9 or 11 is a better answer than the obvious 10). For example, suppose you have a long list or array of items, and want to process items m through n; how many items are there? The obvious answer is n - m, but that is off by one; the right answer is n - m + 1. The "obvious" formula exhibits a fencepost error. See also zeroth and note that not all off-by-one errors are fencepost errors. The game of Musical Chairs involves a catastrophic off-by-one error where N people try to sit in N - 1 chairs, but it's not a fencepost error. Fencepost errors come from counting things rather than the spaces between them, or vice versa, or by neglecting to consider whether one should count one or both ends of a row. 2. (Rare) An error induced by unexpected regularities in input values, which can (for instance) completely thwart a theoretically efficient binary tree or hash coding implementation. The error here involves the difference between expected and worst case behaviours of an algorithm. [Jargon File] (1994-12-01)

The Comedy of Errors

EARLY PLAY BY WILLIAM SHAKESPEARE

Comedy of Errors; Comedy of errors; The Comedy Of Errors; A Comedy of Errors; Comedy Of Errors; Antipholus; The Comedie of Errors; The Comedie of Errors.; Aegeon; Dromio; Angelo (The Comedy of Errors); Comedy of Errors (play); The comedy of errors; The Comedy of Errors (play)

The Comedy of Errors is one of William Shakespeare's early plays. It is his shortest and one of his most farcical comedies, with a major part of the humour coming from slapstick and mistaken identity, in addition to puns and word play.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Comedy_of_Errors

Heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors

ASYMPTOTIC VARIANCES UNDER HETEROSKEDASTICITY

HCSE; Huber–White standard error; Huber-White standard error; HC0; White standard errors; Heteroscedasticity-Consistent Standard Errors; Eicker-White standard errors; Huber-White standard errors; Huber–White standard errors; Eicker–White standard errors; Eicker–White standard error; Eicker–Huber-White standard error; Eicker–Huber-White standard errors; Sandwich standard error; Eicker-White standard error; Robust standard error; Eicker-Huber-White standard errors; Eicker-Huber-White standard error; Heteroscedasticity-consistent standard errors

The topic of heteroskedasticity-consistent (HC) standard errors arises in statistics and econometrics in the context of linear regression and time series analysis. These are also known as heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (or simply robust standard errors), Eicker–Huber–White standard errors (also Huber–White standard errors or White standard errors), to recognize the contributions of Friedhelm Eicker, Peter J.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heteroskedasticity-consistent_standard_errors

Wikipedia

Forecast error

In statistics, a forecast error is the difference between the actual or real and the predicted or forecast value of a time series or any other phenomenon of interest. Since the forecast error is derived from the same scale of data, comparisons between the forecast errors of different series can only be made when the series are on the same scale.

In simple cases, a forecast is compared with an outcome at a single time-point and a summary of forecast errors is constructed over a collection of such time-points. Here the forecast may be assessed using the difference or using a proportional error. By convention, the error is defined using the value of the outcome minus the value of the forecast.

In other cases, a forecast may consist of predicted values over a number of lead-times; in this case an assessment of forecast error may need to consider more general ways of assessing the match between the time-profiles of the forecast and the outcome. If a main application of the forecast is to predict when certain thresholds will be crossed, one possible way of assessing the forecast is to use the timing-error—the difference in time between when the outcome crosses the threshold and when the forecast does so. When there is interest in the maximum value being reached, assessment of forecasts can be done using any of:

the difference of times of the peaks;
the difference in the peak values in the forecast and outcome;
the difference between the peak value of the outcome and the value forecast for that time point.

Forecast error can be a calendar forecast error or a cross-sectional forecast error, when we want to summarize the forecast error over a group of units. If we observe the average forecast error for a time-series of forecasts for the same product or phenomenon, then we call this a calendar forecast error or time-series forecast error. If we observe this for multiple products for the same period, then this is a cross-sectional performance error. Reference class forecasting has been developed to reduce forecast error. Combining forecasts has also been shown to reduce forecast error.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forecast error